Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe802…6aae
other · 63 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses44 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage34d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 1 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$36
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $49 +$8 +16%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $45 +$3 +6%
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $23 +$15 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 +$1 +46%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $4 +$1 +29%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $7 +$2 +22%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $4 +$3 +77%
Will Santos FC vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw? May 20 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 +$1 +64%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $2 −$1 -44%
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Norway May 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 12 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $4 −$2 -59%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? May 12 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% −$7
sports 9% +$5
crypto 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 15h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 40h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 43h
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 77¢ $56 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 12d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? SELL No 100¢ $57 12d
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 86¢ $49 12d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $50 12d
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 96¢ $48 12d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $48 12d
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 94¢ $45 13d
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 13d
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 13d
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? SELL No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 94¢ $38 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 13d
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 83¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -20.5% -28.0% 53% 53% -73.2%
≤30d 43 +12.1% +1.5% 72% 65% -11.7%
≤90d 62 +14.0% +3.1% 71% 61% -9.3%
all 62 +14.0% +3.1% 71% 61% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 61% -9.3%
10% -6.8% 48% -18.0%
15% -15.8% 34% -25.9%
20% -24.0% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $1.97 (match) · 128 history records