Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe802…3f8c
world · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage263d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 0 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $82 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $54 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $47 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $3 $0 -11%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 25 $26 $0 -2%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 23 $28 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$1
politics 21% −$1
other 12% −$5
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 43h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $49 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $60 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $24 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 34¢ $19 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $51 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -8.9% 22% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 17% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 25% 17% -9.4%
all 29 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 7% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records