Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe801…8a7d crypto 380 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+2%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate47%179W / 201L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$50
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 355 -0.9% -10.4% 48% 25% -8.8%
≤30d 380 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 25% -8.6%
≤90d 380 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 25% -8.6%
all 380 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 25% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 25% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 18% -17.4%
15% -28.2% 14% -25.4%
20% -35.3% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses179 / 201
Open positions0
Markets (closed)380 / 380
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 380 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$31 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $28 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1387 history records