Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E7 0xe7ff…3506 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,972 (-15%) realized −$5,972 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%50W / 78L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 255d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$8,676
other 5% −$262
crypto 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 27% -11.9%
≤30d 56 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 27% -11.9%
≤90d 92 -10.3% -18.9% 37% 32% -9.4%
all 128 -10.0% -18.6% 39% 35% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 35% -29.9%
10% -26.3% 31% -36.6%
15% -33.5% 25% -42.7%
20% -40.0% 19% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$212 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,972
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses50 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage255d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $284 −$211 -74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $85 −$34 -40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $128 +$217 +170%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $198 −$24 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 −$11 -15%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $107 +$98 +91%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $68 −$61 -90%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 +$159 +160%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 −$5 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $107 −$94 -88%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $53 −$49 -92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $354 −$30 -9%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $128 +$74 +58%
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$18 -89%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $439 −$199 -45%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $229 +$199 +87%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $27 −$8 -30%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $149 −$1 -1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $175 −$26 -15%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $56 −$42 -75%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $544 +$52 +10%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $1,443 +$39 +3%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $217 −$196 -90%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $182 −$57 -32%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $613 −$390 -64%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $29 −$15 -52%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $34 −$4 -13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $41 −$8 -19%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $145 −$87 -60%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $106 −$86 -81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 −$13 -8%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $73 −$24 -32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $23 −$12 -53%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $172 −$60 -35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $449 +$226 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $15 −$12 -78%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $24 +$10 +41%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $99 +$38 +39%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $104 −$41 -40%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $213 −$77 -36%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $101 +$30 +30%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $91 +$52 +57%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $191 −$85 -44%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $346 +$29 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $178 −$10 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $18 49m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $56 51m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 55m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $228 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 69¢ $19 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 80¢ $44 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 78¢ $42 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 75¢ $82 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $166 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $148 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $147 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $65 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $65 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $76 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 25¢ $26 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 520 history records