Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E7 0xe7ff…747c other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+6%) realized +$141 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$126
crypto 22% −$64
world 12% −$1
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$2
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 71% +12.1%
≤30d 7 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 71% +12.1%
≤90d 7 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 71% +12.1%
all 7 +9.3% -1.1% 71% 71% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 71% +12.1%
10% -10.6% 43% +1.4%
15% -19.2% 29% -8.4%
20% -27.1% 0% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$3 · ×10.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.56 per $1 lost it wins $25.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 65¢ 54¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.74 · official $603.74 (match) · 25 history records