Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7fc…13cb world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$2
other 26% +$1
politics 22% +$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 5% +$1
tech 3% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage432d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $24 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $27 −$2 -7%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $22 $0 -1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $25 26h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $24 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $27 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $27 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $18 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $25 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $24 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $19 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records