Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E7 0xe7f9…bf88 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+28%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$144
world 16% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 100% +5.7%
≤30d 1 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 100% +5.7%
≤90d 4 +2.6% -7.2% 75% 75% +14.3%
all 4 +2.6% -7.2% 75% 75% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 75% +14.3%
10% -16.1% 25% +3.4%
15% -24.2% 25% -6.6%
20% -31.6% 25% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$99 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage81d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian S Jun 28 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $308 +$222 +72%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $100 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian S SELL Yes 43¢ $117 2h
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian S BUY Yes 37¢ $100 12d
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 43d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $308 43d
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 81d
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records