Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7f7…e73b sports 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,242 (+20%) realized +$9,459 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%202W / 157L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$388est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6,908now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days+$739
14 days+$8,780
30 days+$9,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$9,674
other 27% +$2,669
world 12% −$6
politics 4% −$7
culture 4% −$263
crypto 3% −$395
economics 2% +$610
weather 2% −$72
tech 1% −$16
finance 1% −$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +74.1% +57.5% 62% 50% +65.6%
≤30d 56 +70.9% +54.7% 64% 50% +73.8%
≤90d 229 -3.7% -12.9% 47% 33% +15.9%
all 359 +18.6% +7.3% 56% 35% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 35% +18.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.0% 30% +6.9%
15% -12.3% 28% -3.4%
20% -20.9% 22% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$44 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$6,908
Realized+$9,459
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses202 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$388
Open positions32
Markets (closed)359 / 391
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$115
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,417 $3,476 +$59 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 80¢ $447 $551 +$104 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $229 $327 +$98 (+43%)
Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump? No 97¢ 99¢ $262 $268 +$6 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $235 $214 −$20 (-9%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $188 $202 +$14 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $155 $191 +$36 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $204 $186 −$18 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $163 $175 +$13 (+8%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $165 −$5 (-3%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $145 $142 −$3 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $125 $136 +$11 (+9%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 49¢ 14¢ $491 $135 −$356 (-73%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $133 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 68¢ 90¢ $97 $129 +$32 (+33%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $76 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $36 $43 +$6 (+17%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $80 $30 −$50 (-62%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $108 $24 −$84 (-78%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $70 $23 −$47 (-67%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 88¢ $12 $18 +$5 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $174 −$156 -90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $90 +$86 +95%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $113 +$96 +85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$60 +86%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 +$49 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $59 −$5 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $55 +$37 +66%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$39 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $134 +$666 +497%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,311 +$5,735 +173%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $743 +$413 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $231 +$401 +174%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $82 +$1,173 +1424%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $239 −$238 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $314 +$789 +251%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $296 −$191 -65%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $48 +$20 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $159 −$158 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $73 +$143 +195%
Will Tracy Morgan attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $174 +$1 +0%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $732 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $39 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $119 +$397 +334%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$17 +52%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $25 +$25 +98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $197 +$69 +35%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8 +$12 +138%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $70 −$64 -92%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $4 −$1 -41%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $3 +$7 +285%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 26? May 26 $894 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn May 26 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? May 26 $15 −$3 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2m
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 3m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 5m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 27m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 49m
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 9¢ $47 8h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 11h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 12h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $120 12h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $20 12h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $495 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $63 14h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Theo James announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $14 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 90¢ $45 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,908.20 · official $6,908.22 (match) · 3500 history records