Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7f6…eee9 other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-2%) realized −$342 · open +$140
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%58W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$438
other 31% −$258
world 8% −$195
sports 3% +$68
tech 3% −$177
politics 2% −$12
economics 1% −$6
finance 1% +$46
culture 1% +$2
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -38.6% -44.5% 25% 25% -88.8%
≤90d 39 -59.6% -63.5% 13% 13% -51.7%
all 175 -29.6% -36.3% 33% 28% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 28% -12.0%
10% -42.4% 21% -20.4%
15% -48.0% 14% -28.1%
20% -53.1% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$140
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses58 / 117
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)175 / 178
History coverage293d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 66¢ $0 $62 +$62 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $0 $43 +$43 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 20¢ $0 $34 +$34 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $310 −$307 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -73%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$24 +118%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 22 $60 −$23 -38%
Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $49 +$50 +101%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 29 $6 −$5 -88%
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale? Apr 25 $15 −$14 -91%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $97 −$1 -1%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $21 −$5 -25%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -97%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 23 $136 −$48 -36%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 23 $166 −$51 -31%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $170 +$60 +36%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Apr 01 $35 +$63 +179%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $30 +$67 +222%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 202 Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 24? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -70%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -88%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -90%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 23 $4 −$3 -82%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $43 −$14 -33%
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 23 $13 −$12 -90%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 23 $5 −$4 -72%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Mar 23 $12 −$10 -81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 64¢ $61 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 36¢ $54 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $78 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $95 21d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $0 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $99 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $44 21d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $44 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 29d
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? BUY Yes $3 31d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $10 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.80 · official $139.80 (match) · 722 history records