trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $57 | $62 | +$5 (+9%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-19%) |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $1 | +$5 | +510% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $1 | +$2 | +172% |
| Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | May 29 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Exact Score: West Ham United FC 2 - 0 Leeds United FC? | May 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Tottenham Hotspur FC 0 - 2 Everton FC? | May 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | May 24 | $1 | +$2 | +165% |
| Spread: Thunder (-3.5) | May 23 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Spread: Knicks (-8.5) | May 22 | $1 | +$1 | +134% |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | May 21 | $1 | +$1 | +119% |
| Spread: Knicks (-8.5) | May 20 | $1 | +$1 | +124% |
| Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 3 Chelsea FC? | May 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | May 09 | $1 | +$1 | +93% |
| Spread: Thunder (-14.5) | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-16.5) | May 06 | $1 | +$1 | +114% |
| Spread: Pistons (-2.5) | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | May 05 | $1 | +$1 | +97% |
| Spread: Spurs (-13.5) | May 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) | May 04 | $1 | +$1 | +105% |
| Spread: Pistons (-9.5) | May 04 | $1 | +$1 | +119% |
| Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 0 Liverpool FC? | May 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Rockets (-4.5) | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | May 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | May 02 | $1 | +$2 | +152% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) | Apr 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | Apr 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 30 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? | Apr 30 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-12.5) | Apr 29 | $1 | +$1 | +109% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | Apr 29 | $1 | +$1 | +97% |
| Spread: Celtics (-11.5) | Apr 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | Apr 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 FC Bayern München? | Apr 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 14% | 14% | -20.4% |
| ≤30d | 23 | +5.3% | -4.7% | 35% | 35% | -5.7% |
| ≤90d | 113 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 27% | 27% | -31.4% |
| all | 140 | +18.4% | +7.2% | 33% | 32% | -2.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.2% | 32% | -2.1% |
| 10% | -3.1% | 32% | -11.5% |
| 15% | -12.5% | 32% | -20.1% |
| 20% | -21.0% | 32% | -27.9% |