Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7f0…259b other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$3
other 34% $0
sports 5% +$10
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -9.1%
all 36 -0.4% -9.9% 42% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -8.2%
10% -18.5% 3% -17.0%
15% -26.4% 3% -25.0%
20% -33.6% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage458d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $64 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $84 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $45 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Dec 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 12 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $12 +$11 +93%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $35 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $5 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $6 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $34 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $46 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $29 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $15 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $44 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $40 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $40 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $44 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $39 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $39 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records