Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe7ec…a3ad
sports · 156 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$655 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$665 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$450
Realized−$665
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses71 / 57
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions28
Markets (closed)128 / 156
History coverage223d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 28 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$63
14 days+$175
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 14¢ 92¢ $17 $111 +$94 (+561%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 19¢ $90 $59 −$31 (-35%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 70¢ 88¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 70¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+65%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 62¢ 48¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$7 +32%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$12 +57%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$17 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $51 +$36 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $50 +$22 +44%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $50 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$24 +48%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 07 $50 +$13 +26%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $51 −$13 -25%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$53 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $51 +$30 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $107 +$107 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $217 +$91 +42%
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026? Apr 07 $23 +$181 +793%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 04 $1 $0 +45%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-02-02? Feb 04 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 02 $1 $0 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $1 $0 +32%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +39%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $2 +$2 +85%
LoL: eSuba vs ⁠Ethereal Enigmas (BO1) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stage Jan 29 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 29 $1 $0 +43%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 29 $1 +$1 +79%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jan 29 $1 +$1 +82%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 29 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$60
sports 31% +$27
crypto 10% −$25
culture 8% −$585
tech 0% −$10
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 58m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $13 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $20 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $20 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $20 36h
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 69¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 75¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $20 3d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman BUY Bublik/Kyrgios 56¢ $10 3d
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman BUY Bublik/Kyrgios 56¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 61¢ $51 4d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 43¢ $51 4d
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 49¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $50 5d
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic BUY Siniakova/Townsend 79¢ $50 5d
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 5d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 64¢ $51 5d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 52¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 70¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.7% +2.9% 71% 71% -2.5%
≤30d 32 +7.4% -2.9% 66% 66% -0.1%
≤90d 33 +31.2% +18.7% 67% 67% +9.9%
all 128 -3.9% -13.0% 55% 55% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 55% -18.4%
10% -21.3% 29% -26.2%
15% -28.9% 26% -33.3%
20% -35.9% 18% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.36 · official $450.44 (match) · 594 history records