Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7eb…2f61 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% $0
other 39% +$1
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 39 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage459d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $32 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $5 −$1 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $38 +$1 +4%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $8 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $6 $0 +9%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 22 $8 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $35 5h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $35 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $35 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $39 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $39 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $2 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $17 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $0 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 113 history records