Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7ea…52d2 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$824 (-33%) realized −$819 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$915
14 days−$864
30 days−$864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$518
other 35% −$353
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 24% -70.1%
≤30d 41 +6.0% -4.1% 29% 29% -59.4%
≤90d 41 +6.0% -4.1% 29% 29% -59.4%
all 41 +6.0% -4.1% 29% 29% -59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 29% -59.4%
10% -13.3% 29% -63.3%
15% -21.7% 29% -66.8%
20% -29.3% 29% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$45 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$945
Realized−$819
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions10
Markets (closed)41 / 51
History coverage8d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
United States to win the second half? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 24¢ 26¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$94 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 +$40 +395%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 15 $22 +$42 +188%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $37 +$39 +106%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $63 +$65 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$25 +230%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$27 +900%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 +$100 +235%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$33 +322%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $59 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $26 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $24 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $20 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $141 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $15 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $944.71 · official $944.71 (match) · 143 history records