Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe7ea…1008 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$210 (+0%) realized +$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%23W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$1,252per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$407
politics 39% −$65
sports 7% −$156
world 4% −$6
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 119 +1.5% -8.2% 19% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 13% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 13% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 12% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,749) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$13 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses23 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,252
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $2,572 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,191 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $2,402 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,437 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,891 −$3 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $300 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $456 +$1 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,442 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $379 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,830 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,607 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,777 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $2,330 −$4 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,493 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,695 −$5 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,896 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,939 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,174 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,205 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,888 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $7,954 −$7 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 11 $1,149 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,777 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $759 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $760 2h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $756 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 24h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $559 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $560 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $492 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $493 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $888 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $889 7d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $707 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $708 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $673 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $674 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $999 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,251 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,252 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,249 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,251 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,255 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,257 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,137 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 20d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $981 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $982 21d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 22d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 449 history records