Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7e1…bb47 sports 297 markets active 2h ago coverage 742d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,385 (-2%) realized −$2,592 · open +$207
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%190W / 102L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3,747now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days−$399
14 days−$221
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$2,967
other 20% −$6,877
crypto 7% +$369
world 4% −$238
politics 2% +$1,381
tech 0% −$110
economics 0% +$5
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 36% -22.2%
≤30d 52 -7.3% -16.1% 48% 40% -11.8%
≤90d 56 -13.8% -22.0% 45% 38% -29.9%
all 292 +0.2% -9.4% 65% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 46% -11.9%
10% -18.1% 34% -20.3%
15% -26.0% 27% -28.0%
20% -33.2% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$178 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$3,747
Realized−$2,592
Unrealized+$207
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses190 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions5
Markets (closed)292 / 297
History coverage742d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $3,000 $3,355 +$355 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $287 $221 −$66 (-23%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 29¢ $150 $79 −$71 (-48%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $676 +$203 +30%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $68 +$21 +31%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $316 +$158 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $341 −$333 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $319 −$313 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $69 −$6 -8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $33 +$13 +40%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 23 $56 −$46 -83%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $97 −$60 -62%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $307 +$11 +4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $440 +$37 +8%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $33 +$19 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $146 −$144 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$9 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$31 +91%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $317 +$173 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $119 −$5 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $307 +$24 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $153 +$48 +31%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $307 −$148 -48%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $10 +$45 +442%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$10 -65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -81%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 +$61 +109%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$49 +10%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 +$98 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $90 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 88¢ $878 37h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $676 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $321 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $319 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $316 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $63 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $68 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $69 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $69 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $33 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $33 3d
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $37 5d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $250 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $477 5d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 6d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 6d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 7d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 7d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 7d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 8d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $3 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $33 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 60¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.