Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7dd…b96d other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,670 (-40%) realized −$694 · open −$976
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$827per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$317
politics 25% −$976
sports 20% −$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 50% -23.3%
≤30d 4 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 50% -23.3%
≤90d 4 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 50% -23.3%
all 4 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 50% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 50% -23.3%
10% -44.2% 25% -30.7%
15% -49.6% 0% -37.4%
20% -54.5% 0% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$433 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$694
Unrealized−$976
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$827
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1,000 $24 −$976 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,681 +$244 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $506 +$148 +29%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $807 −$790 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$75 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,925 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,681 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,037 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $654 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $506 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $807 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $28 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.81 · official $23.81 (match) · 9 history records