Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7dc…ec3e politics 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$20
politics 37% −$20
sports 13% −$16
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 146 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage134d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $257 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $263 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $227 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $383 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $279 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $282 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $259 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $283 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $254 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $234 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $233 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $482 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $406 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $266 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $858 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 12h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 39h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 42h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $263 23d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $263 26d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 26d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $275 26d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $276 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $274 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 29d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $187 29d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $187 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 29d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $268 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 478 history records