Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe7db…feb0 crypto 323 markets active 22h ago coverage 214d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 213d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,146 (-11%) realized −$6,397 · open +$251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%138W / 179L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$131
14 days+$479
30 days−$2,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$2,449
other 25% −$398
culture 18% −$3,452
world 9% +$482
politics 7% +$375
sports 6% −$1,417
tech 3% +$52
finance 1% −$15
weather 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +7.5% -2.7% 55% 45% -13.6%
≤30d 80 +16.6% +5.5% 55% 31% -18.1%
≤90d 117 -3.7% -12.8% 43% 26% -18.2%
all 317 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 28% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 28% -20.9%
10% -21.4% 21% -28.5%
15% -29.0% 17% -35.4%
20% -36.0% 16% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$96 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$1,615
Realized−$6,397
Unrealized+$251
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses138 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions6
Markets (closed)317 / 323
History coverage214d ⚠
Avg bet$181
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $857 $994 +$138 (+16%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $149 $199 +$50 (+33%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 61¢ 94¢ $122 $188 +$66 (+54%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 68¢ 76¢ $136 $151 +$15 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 22 $182 −$180 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $293 −$19 -6%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 22 $236 +$64 +27%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $48 +$2 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $194 −$26 -13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 20 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $271 −$181 -67%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $132 −$4 -3%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 19 $131 +$88 +67%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 19 $140 −$45 -32%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 19 $164 +$25 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $251 +$49 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $527 +$60 +11%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -15%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 16 $35 −$18 -50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $333 +$66 +20%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $234 +$66 +28%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $162 +$325 +200%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $105 +$165 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $46 +$54 +115%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $87 −$20 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $54 −$14 -26%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39 Jun 12 $1 +$14 +1328%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 11 $25 +$2 +10%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $122 +$6 +5%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$12 +14%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -91%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $47 +$2 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $66 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 68¢ $136 22h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 0¢ $3 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 24h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 98¢ $209 27h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 99¢ $83 27h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 99¢ $3 27h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 99¢ $1 27h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $120 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $315 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $132 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 78¢ $235 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $425 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $360 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $43 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $27 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $430 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $102 2d
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 2¢ $16 3d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL Yes 9¢ $8 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,614.90 · official $1,614.19 (match) · 3500 history records