Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7db…959b weather 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$149 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%63W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day115.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$201
14 days−$202
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -7.6% -16.4% 58% 55% -33.5%
≤30d 109 -8.5% -17.2% 58% 54% -33.7%
≤90d 109 -8.5% -17.2% 58% 54% -33.7%
all 109 -8.5% -17.2% 58% 54% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 54% -33.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 47% -40.0%
15% -32.4% 30% -45.8%
20% -39.0% 18% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses63 / 46
Open positions33
Markets (closed)109 / 142
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day115.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $57 $94 +$37 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 76¢ $33 $89 +$56 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $42 $58 +$16 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 68¢ $15 $54 +$39 (+257%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $31 $44 +$13 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 13¢ 28¢ $12 $26 +$14 (+113%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Yes 25¢ 41¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 23¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+367%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $8 $10 +$3 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 33¢ 66¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+104%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $13 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.68 · official $549.68 (match) · 904 history records