Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E7 0xe7da…97f7 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%42W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$13
weather 26% +$1
crypto 26% −$12
economics 5% $0
world 4% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 +22.0% +10.4% 100% 19% +15.6%
≤90d 50 +8.7% -1.7% 84% 14% -8.9%
all 50 +8.7% -1.7% 84% 14% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 14% -8.9%
10% -11.1% 12% -17.7%
15% -19.7% 8% -25.6%
20% -27.6% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 91% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses42 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage57d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $18 $24 +$7 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 31? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 31? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 31? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET May 31 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 31 $23 +$67 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $21 −$16 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $21 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $10 +$69 +685%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $67 −$34 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on May 13? May 18 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET May 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET May 07 $15 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C on May 5? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10PM ET Apr 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET Apr 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 21d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 25d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 32d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $9 32d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.75 · official $88.70 (match) · 106 history records