Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7da…138c weather 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$2
other 23% −$2
weather 14% $0
sports 6% +$16
crypto 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 67% -1.1%
≤30d 11 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 73% -3.3%
≤90d 11 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 73% -3.3%
all 42 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 26% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 26% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 24% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 12% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 10% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage509d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? No 65¢ 56¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $29 +$19 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? Jun 01 $14 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 27? May 29 $22 +$7 +32%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 26 $29 +$10 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 24 $25 +$11 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $267 $0 -0%
Devils vs. Capitals Nov 16 $12 +$17 +138%
Heat vs. Knicks Nov 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Kings vs. Maple Leafs Nov 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Avalanche vs. Canucks Nov 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 09 $5 +$8 +150%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 6? Nov 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 25? Aug 25 $19 −$1 -4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Aug 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 20 $50 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 18 $14 $0 -3%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 28 $25 $0 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $19 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3,800 on July 28? Jul 27 $12 +$1 +12%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Jul 26 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 25 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 09 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Apr 11? Apr 08 $8 $0 -2%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 08 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 28 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 25 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $29 33h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 50¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 56¢ $19 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? BUY No 73¢ $14 19d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 27? BUY No 75¢ $22 22d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid BUY Olympiacos B.C. 75¢ $29 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? BUY No 68¢ $25 27d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY No 65¢ $27 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $257 173d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 174d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $266 174d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 94¢ $267 174d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $267 174d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $267 174d
Devils vs. Capitals BUY Devils 42¢ $12 214d
Heat vs. Knicks BUY Heat 34¢ $9 215d
Kings vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 47¢ $6 217d
Avalanche vs. Canucks BUY Canucks 35¢ $2 220d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 40¢ $5 222d
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 6? BUY Up 52¢ $15 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 25? SELL Yes 50¢ $19 297d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on August 25? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 297d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 297d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 297d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL Yes 38¢ $19 299d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY Yes 40¢ $20 299d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.27 · official $24.05 (match) · 92 history records