trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 15 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 10% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 15% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| 20% | -100.0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $435 | $180 | −$255 (-59%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $331 | $130 | −$201 (-61%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $45 | $22 | −$22 (-50%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $187 | $21 | −$167 (-89%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? | Jun 06 | $4 | −$4 | -95% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $33 | −$32 | -96% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 29 | $58 | −$56 | -95% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 18 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Dec 30 | $166 | −$165 | -100% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin | Dec 17 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 | Dec 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $10 | −$7 | -64% |