Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7d8…f8fa sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,225 (+20%) realized +$3,225 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate73%19W / 7L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days+$833
14 days+$3,147
30 days+$3,147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$2,185
other 26% +$967
crypto 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.5% +0.9% 75% 75% +22.7%
≤30d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 68% +8.1%
≤90d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 76% 68% +8.1%
all 26 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 65% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 65% +7.8%
10% -16.4% 46% -2.5%
15% -24.5% 31% -12.0%
20% -31.9% 12% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$767) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$202 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses19 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage330d
Avg bet$624
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $554 +$250 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $299 −$292 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $498 +$133 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $997 +$743 +74%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $767 +$59 +8%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $102 −$54 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $686 +$127 +18%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $406 +$19 +5%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $508 +$141 +28%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $102 +$12 +12%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $220 +$33 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $508 +$383 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,238 −$127 -10%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $198 +$28 +14%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $837 +$370 +44%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $561 +$276 +49%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $506 +$54 +11%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $371 +$133 +36%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3,965 +$909 +23%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $1,010 +$490 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $293 +$178 +61%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $817 −$806 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $645 +$173 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $79 −$78 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26? Jul 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Chicago Sky 32¢ $804 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 21¢ $554 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $299 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $631 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $498 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,740 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $491 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $506 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 65¢ $826 7d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 59¢ $767 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 15¢ $48 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 31¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $812 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson SELL Lucia Bronzetti 58¢ $424 7d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 54¢ $406 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $138 7d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa SELL Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 58¢ $650 7d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 43¢ $407 7d
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 49¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 7d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec SELL Veronika Erjavec 52¢ $114 7d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 45¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 7d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic SELL Emma Raducanu 62¢ $130 7d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic SELL Emma Raducanu 63¢ $122 7d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 53¢ $203 7d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 52¢ $17 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $487 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $892 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records