Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7d8…a8ce weather 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$220 (-15%) realized −$203 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$206
14 days−$245
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$83
other 25% −$81
politics 8% −$27
sports 8% −$38
finance 3% −$10
tech 2% −$11
world 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$7
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -16.6% -24.6% 4% 1% -25.3%
≤30d 137 -18.2% -25.9% 7% 3% -25.5%
≤90d 137 -18.2% -25.9% 7% 3% -25.5%
all 137 -18.2% -25.9% 7% 3% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 3% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 2% -32.6%
15% -39.5% 1% -39.1%
20% -45.4% 0% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 127
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027? No 35¢ 8¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-79%)
Will Beşiktaş Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage Yes 48¢ 5¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will JackeyLove Win MSI Finals MVP Yes 17¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? Jun 29 $11 −$3 -31%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 30? Jun 29 $5 $0 -3%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 29 20 Jun 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1? Jun 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? Jun 29 $27 −$1 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 29? Jun 29 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? Jun 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? Jun 29 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 29? Jun 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 29? Jun 29 $14 −$3 -21%
Will LAB reach $20 before 2027? Jun 29 $11 −$1 -5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 29? Jun 29 $4 $0 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 29? Jun 29 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1? Jun 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 30? Jun 29 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on July 1? Jun 29 $1 $0 -26%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 1? Jun 29 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 29? Jun 29 $12 −$4 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 29? Jun 29 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 1? Jun 29 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 9 Jun 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 29? Jun 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 29 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 1? Jun 29 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1? Jun 29 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 1 Jun 29 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 1 Jun 29 $11 −$9 -79%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of June 29 2 Jun 29 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $14 −$10 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 1? Jun 29 $4 $0 -4%
Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q2 adjusted revenue be above $12.25B? Jun 29 $12 −$4 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 30? Jun 29 $11 $0 -3%
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1? Jun 29 $6 $0 -2%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 18 Jun 29 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 29? Jun 29 $6 $0 -3%
Will Waymo launch in Baltimore, MD by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $15 $0 -3%
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $6 −$2 -30%
Will LAB dip to $10 before 2027? Jun 29 $4 $0 -5%
Will Waymo launch in Pittsburgh, PA by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion Jun 29 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $14 $0 -3%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 20 Jun 28 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Cham Jun 28 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28? Jun 28 $24 −$2 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 29? Jun 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 10m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 14m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 14m
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 29 20 SELL Yes 82¢ $16 32m
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 29 20 BUY Yes 82¢ $16 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1? SELL No 77¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1? SELL No 80¢ $10 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1? BUY No 78¢ $16 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? SELL No 70¢ $26 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $7 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 29? BUY No 71¢ $12 50m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 29? SELL No 36¢ $17 50m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 29? BUY No 37¢ $18 50m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? SELL No 37¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY No 37¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? SELL No 63¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? BUY No 64¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 29? SELL No 79¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 29? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 29? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 29? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Will LAB reach $20 before 2027? SELL No 54¢ $10 1h
Will LAB reach $20 before 2027? BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 29? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 29? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will LAB dip to $6 before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.71 · official $3.31 (match) · 366 history records