trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 | Jun 13 | $14 | $0 | -3% |
| US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $4 | −$1 | -14% |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | Jun 13 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | Jun 12 | $8 | $0 | -3% |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum | Jun 12 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Jun 12 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? | Jun 11 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? | Jun 11 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | Jun 11 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? | Jun 11 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? | Jun 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | Jun 10 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? | Jun 10 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | Jun 10 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) | Jun 10 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | Jun 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 26 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 26 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 26 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 26 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 0% | -10.1% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -33.7% |