Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7d0…d778 crypto 389 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%381W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$28
14 days−$24
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$27
finance 11% +$18
other 5% −$98
tech 1% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 205 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 389 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -10.2%
all 389 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$25 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses381 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)389 / 389
History coverage72d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 389 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $49 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 39m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $30 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.00 · official $21.00 (match) · 1960 history records