Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7cf…216c other 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,891 (-1%) realized −$1,891 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%36W / 118L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,257per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days+$20
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$36
politics 34% −$80
sports 19% −$1,872
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$2
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 -4.9% -14.0% 10% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 90 -11.4% -19.9% 9% 4% -11.1%
all 154 -0.6% -10.1% 23% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 10% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 10% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 9% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,657) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$31 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$1,891
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses36 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,257
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $269 $269 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,076 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,527 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $886 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $233 +$3 +1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,858 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,782 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,080 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $57 +$65 +114%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,088 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,665 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,710 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $451 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,120 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $318 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,266 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4,480 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,518 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $66 +$30 +46%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,908 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 3h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $244 6h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,077 22h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 23h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $999 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 28h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $967 46h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $969 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,147 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,149 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,178 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,179 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,022 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,002 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $973 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $974 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $869 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $870 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $49 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $85 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $99 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.25 · official $269.25 (match) · 486 history records