Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7cc…2833 other 278 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$869 (-5%) realized −$611 · open −$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%109W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$1,078
sports 15% +$124
world 1% +$109
politics 1% +$11
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -38.8% -44.7% 40% 40% +29.0%
≤90d 27 -24.4% -31.6% 37% 33% -17.7%
all 269 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 39% -13.0%
10% -21.6% 38% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 32% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$611
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses109 / 160
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)269 / 278
History coverage162d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $416 $290 −$126 (-30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $159 $135 −$24 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Yes 28¢ 1¢ $91 $2 −$89 (-98%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 21¢ 6¢ $6 $2 −$5 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $178 +$130 +73%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $265 +$87 +33%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 14 $70 −$7 -10%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 08 $95 −$76 -80%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $155 −$85 -55%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $30 +$26 +86%
Will SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 08 $15 +$16 +111%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $160 −$51 -32%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 05 $16 +$6 +36%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $45 +$30 +67%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 +$11 +110%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 +$24 +244%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $50 +$28 +57%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? Mar 18 $30 −$21 -71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-15? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Mar 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Mar 18 $18 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 2¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $163 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $178 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 43¢ $172 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 74¢ $76 63d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 63d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 73d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 74d
Will SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $31 74d
Will SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 74d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 74d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 74d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 74d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $26 74d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 5¢ $56 74d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $30 74d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 74d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 77d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 77d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 78d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 78d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 78d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.03 · official $499.13 (match) · 731 history records