Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7cb…5610 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
politics 32% −$1
world 18% −$1
sports 5% −$27
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -20.0% -27.7% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 9 -11.1% -19.6% 33% 0% -10.4%
all 38 -2.6% -11.9% 39% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage392d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 50¢ 46¢ $179 $166 −$13 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $805 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 12? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Solana dip to $30 March 30-April 5? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 30-April 5? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? Feb 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on January 6? Jan 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on January 20? Jan 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? Jan 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on wee Dec 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 November 10-16? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Oct 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Oct 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in August? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $262 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $273 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? May 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th May 22 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $263 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 1h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $774 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $775 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $769 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $805 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $182 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $22 2d
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 6d
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Oxuji Esports 70¢ $14 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 67d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 67d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $3 77d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 77d
Will Solana dip to $30 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 77d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 77d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 95d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $13 140d
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on January 20? BUY No 100¢ $33 149d
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $20 162d
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $20 162d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on January 6? BUY No 100¢ $8 162d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on wee SELL No 100¢ $36 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.00 · official $205.00 (match) · 102 history records