Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7ca…c4fd other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%27W / 29L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$1
other 25% −$19
crypto 13% +$1
sports 10% +$2
politics 9% +$21
weather 7% +$1
economics 4% $0
culture 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 0% -10.0%
all 56 +16.7% +5.6% 48% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 4% -9.2%
10% -4.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -13.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -22.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses27 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 −$3 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 22 $1 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $17 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 14 $16 $0 -1%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 09 $19 −$2 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $9 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? May 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $10 $0 +3%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $1 $0 -27%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 12m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $19 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $19 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $9 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 10d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $17 357d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL Yes $0 358d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL Yes $0 358d
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? SELL Yes $0 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records