Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7c9…d2b8 weather 1006 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$91 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%518W / 475L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day53.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$784
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -7.2% -16.0% 52% 52% -15.6%
≤30d 131 +1.5% -8.2% 59% 59% -8.4%
≤90d 993 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 51% -19.4%
all 993 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 51% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 51% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 50% -27.1%
15% -25.9% 46% -34.2%
20% -33.2% 29% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses518 / 475
Open positions13
Markets (closed)993 / 1006
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 993 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 71¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 74¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 78¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 75¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 74¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 74¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 70¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 70¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 71¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 66¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? No 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 16 $0 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $4 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 15 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 30¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 70¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 32¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $4 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 74¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 33¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 32¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL No 27¢ $1 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 78¢ $4 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 71¢ $4 11h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 74¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 31¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 23¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 32¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL No 32¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $3 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL No 33¢ $2 21h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun SELL No 33¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.18 · official $43.18 (match) · 3500 history records