trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 55¢ | 60¢ | $100 | $110 | +$10 (+10%) |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 76¢ | $76 | $80 | +$4 (+5%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | No | 47¢ | 47¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $30 | $32 | +$2 (+6%) |
| Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 49¢ | 44¢ | $29 | $26 | −$3 (-10%) |
| Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | Yes | 23¢ | 2¢ | $30 | $3 | −$27 (-91%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 | Jun 12 | $50 | +$22 | +44% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $90 | +$65 | +73% |
| Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( | Jun 11 | $52 | +$28 | +54% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 | Jun 11 | $9 | $0 | -5% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 | Jun 11 | $51 | +$31 | +62% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | BUY No | 73¢ | $76 | 2h |
| Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I | BUY Yes | 23¢ | $31 | 2h |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY No | 55¢ | $100 | 2h |
| Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 49¢ | $29 | 15h |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | BUY No | 47¢ | $51 | 15h |
| Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( | SELL Yes | 31¢ | $79 | 15h |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 57¢ | $90 | 19h |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 | SELL Over | 68¢ | $8 | 19h |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 | BUY Over | 70¢ | $9 | 2d |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 | BUY Over | 69¢ | $50 | 2d |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 | BUY Under | 61¢ | $51 | 2d |
| Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( | BUY Yes | 19¢ | $52 | 2d |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 10¢ | $31 | 2d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +45.5% | +31.6% | 80% | 80% | +43.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +45.5% | +31.6% | 80% | 80% | +43.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +45.5% | +31.6% | 80% | 80% | +43.0% |
| all | 5 | +45.5% | +31.6% | 80% | 80% | +43.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +31.6% | 80% | +43.0% |
| 10% | +19.0% | 80% | +29.3% |
| 15% | +7.5% | 80% | +16.8% |
| 20% | -3.0% | 60% | +5.4% |