Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7bd…84a0 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized +$360 · open −$435
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$435
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.3%
all 15 +0.2% -9.3% 73% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$4,050
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$435
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage164d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 67¢ 60¢ $4,485 $4,050 −$435 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Integra Lifesciences (IART) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dupont (DD) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 April 13-19? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 30-April 5? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 16-22? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 March 9-15? Mar 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22? Feb 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 9-15? Feb 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 February 2-8? Feb 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on January 14? Feb 07 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 62¢ $104 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 62¢ $1,250 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 63¢ $245 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 64¢ $56 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 65¢ $16 5h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 67¢ $7 5h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 68¢ $1,294 5h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 67¢ $13 6h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 67¢ $34 6h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 67¢ $7,641 6h
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.70 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 30d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $5 59d
Will Solana dip to $70 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 66d
Will XRP dip to $1.10 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 80d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 March 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $5 95d
Will Solana dip to $70 March 9-15? SELL No 100¢ $5 102d
Will Solana dip to $70 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $5 103d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22? SELL No 100¢ $2 123d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22? SELL No 100¢ $0 123d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22? SELL No 100¢ $1 123d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22? SELL No 100¢ $2 123d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22? BUY No 99¢ $5 124d
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 9-15? SELL No 100¢ $5 131d
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $5 131d
Will Solana dip to $50 February 2-8? SELL No 100¢ $5 137d
Will Solana dip to $50 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $5 137d
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on January 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,049.53 · official $4,049.53 (match) · 53 history records