Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7b9…a053 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,094 (-42%) realized −$1,620 · open +$526
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$216
sports 41% −$833
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 31% -65.9%
≤30d 13 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 31% -65.9%
≤90d 13 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 31% -65.9%
all 13 -40.5% -46.1% 38% 31% -65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.1% 31% -65.9%
10% ← realistic here -51.3% 31% -69.1%
15% -56.0% 23% -72.1%
20% -60.3% 23% -74.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$172 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,289
Realized−$1,620
Unrealized+$526
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 42¢ 72¢ $762 $1,289 +$526 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $410 −$410 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $206 −$206 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $310 −$310 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $49 +$46 +95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $151 +$15 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $116 +$88 +76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $98 +$68 +69%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 +$12 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $419 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $364 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $205 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 10¢ $104 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $172 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 3h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 23¢ $207 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $206 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $230 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $49 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 45¢ $49 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $49 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $48 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $50 27h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Qatar 47¢ $49 28h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 19¢ $48 28h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Qatar 75¢ $50 28h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $49 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $48 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.80 · official $638.10 · 40 history records