Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7b7…30c2 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,771 (-56%) realized −$1,771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%24W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$3
other 25% −$595
world 24% −$771
politics 13% −$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -7.9% -16.6% 38% 38% -8.9%
≤30d 55 -7.9% -16.6% 38% 38% -8.9%
≤90d 55 -7.9% -16.6% 38% 38% -8.9%
all 84 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 26% -60.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 26% -60.7%
10% -46.6% 25% -64.5%
15% -51.7% 19% -67.9%
20% -56.5% 17% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$37 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage362d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$24 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$16 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$37 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$38 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$35 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 521 history records