Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
E7 0xe7b4…213a other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,320 (+22%) realized +$2,318 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +137% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +106% what you keep after slip
Net edge+106%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$3,267
other 36% +$845
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+114.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +136.6% +114.0% 53% 47% +48.5%
≤30d 17 +136.6% +114.0% 53% 47% +48.5%
≤90d 17 +136.6% +114.0% 53% 47% +48.5%
all 17 +136.6% +114.0% 53% 47% +48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +114.0% 47% +48.5%
10% +93.6% 47% +34.3%
15% +74.9% 47% +21.3%
20% +57.7% 47% +9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +137% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$610) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +84% → late +183% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$705 vs −$279 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$3,002
Realized+$2,318
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $1,000 $1,026 +$26 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1,000 $1,014 +$14 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1,000 $962 −$38 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $810 −$800 -99%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $99 −$96 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $400 +$600 +150%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists Jun 25 $20 +$49 +241%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $51 +$867 +1686%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $610 −$187 -31%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $54 −$53 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $153 +$2 +1%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $407 −$400 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $406 +$335 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $986 +$1,037 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $614 +$1,825 +297%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $407 −$399 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$374 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $810 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 5h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $68 5h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $400 22h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 31¢ $424 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $54 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 38¢ $155 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $153 34h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $610 34h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $204 34h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $20 34h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. M BUY 24¢ $663 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $407 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $406 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $1,017 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $986 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 BUY 25¢ $614 3d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $407 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 30¢ $362 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,001.88 · official $3,001.88 (match) · 34 history records