Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe7a5…612d politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$173 (-24%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 219d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$87
crypto 24% −$29
other 11% −$80
politics 5% −$40
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +20.3% +8.8% 100% 100% +8.8%
≤30d 1 +20.3% +8.8% 100% 100% +8.8%
≤90d 1 +20.3% +8.8% 100% 100% +8.8%
all 8 -70.6% -73.4% 25% 25% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.4% 25% -18.5%
10% -75.9% 0% -26.3%
15% -78.3% 0% -33.4%
20% -80.4% 0% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$30 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage219d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $427 +$87 +20%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? Nov 12 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? Nov 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 12 $129 +$19 +15%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 41¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 57¢ $234 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $153 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 49¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $188 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $85 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $45 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $7 3h
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2025-11-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $80 218d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY No 6¢ $5 218d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 218d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 219d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? BUY No 22¢ $49 219d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November BUY No 87¢ $129 219d
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? BUY No 4¢ $30 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records