Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:22:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe7a1…7c9d sports 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$538 (+4%) realized +$529 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%215W / 169L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$167est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$45
14 days−$874
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$442
other 15% +$357
tech 1% −$115
crypto 1% +$59
finance 1% +$2
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 45% -7.6%
≤30d 164 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 54% -10.7%
≤90d 344 +6.5% -3.7% 56% 55% -4.8%
all 384 +6.5% -3.7% 56% 55% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 55% -5.0%
10% -12.9% 54% -14.1%
15% -21.3% 52% -22.4%
20% -29.0% 48% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$529
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses215 / 169
Est. fees paid−$167
Open positions6
Markets (closed)384 / 400
History coverage112d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 32¢ 36¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$78 +184%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $63 −$30 -46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +11%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$27 +107%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$22 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$21 +72%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $49 +$131 +270%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $186 +$114 +61%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $51 +$50 +99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 202 Jun 19 $25 +$25 +99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 +$45 +127%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +49%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $45 +$66 +144%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $198 +$151 +76%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $480 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $24 +$26 +104%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +90%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $62 +$55 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$28 +133%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $80 +$80 +100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $446 −$446 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$58 +141%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$11 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 32¢ $46 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 32¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 59¢ $30 8h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 29¢ $20 9h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $22 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21 BUY 42¢ $25 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $25 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $40 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 16h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 46¢ $40 18h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 35¢ $35 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $17 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 20h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $34 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $25 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 33h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $83 34h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $3 37h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $33 37h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $5 37h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $1 37h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $2 40h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $5 40h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 47¢ $24 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $19 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 26¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.34 · official $207.34 (match) · 1042 history records