Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E7 0xe79f…0204 sports 225 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (623 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$381 (-5%) realized −$320 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%123W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day622.7pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$621
other 7% −$60
crypto 1% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (623 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 39% -16.0%
≤30d 212 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 39% -16.0%
≤90d 212 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 39% -16.0%
all 212 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 39% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover622.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 39% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 27% -24.0%
15% -26.0% 19% -31.4%
20% -33.3% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$320
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses123 / 89
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions13
Markets (closed)212 / 225
History coverage3d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day622.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 26¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 59¢ 66¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Senegal 78¢ 78¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Marko Topo 65¢ 64¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Gustavo Heide 71¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Alexandra Eala 45¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 33¢ 20¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Vilius Gaubas 39¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+156%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Daniel Altmaier 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Gabriela Ruse 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Ilia Simakin 39¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Chun-Hsin Tseng 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Michael Mmoh 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Jun 22 $4 −$1 -22%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $77 −$4 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $17 +$6 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Kaichi Uchida vs Bernard Tomic Jun 22 $2 $0 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $98 −$19 -20%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $3 +$1 +33%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $21 −$7 -32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios Jun 22 $7 −$1 -12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Ceban vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 22 $4 $0 +5%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $4 −$2 -62%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $50 −$14 -29%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $55 +$5 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones Jun 22 $57 $0 -0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $142 −$11 -8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $44 −$34 -78%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $29 −$22 -77%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $160 −$44 -28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $5 +$4 +94%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Joao Lucas Da Si Jun 22 $29 +$5 +17%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Pedro Martinez Jun 22 $16 +$6 +37%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 22 $11 −$5 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs Gonzalo Bueno Jun 22 $8 +$1 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 22 $1 $0 +7%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $75 −$10 -13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $140 −$59 -42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $99 −$24 -24%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Plovdiv: Yanaki Milev vs Ognjen Milic Jun 22 $16 −$4 -25%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $90 +$11 +13%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Yi Zhou Jun 22 $15 −$2 -11%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $120 −$40 -33%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vitaliy Sachko vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 22 $9 −$1 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 22 $1 +$2 +132%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $44 −$12 -27%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $34 +$4 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 22 $28 +$13 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $40 +$4 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Timofey Skatov vs Alex Barrena Jun 22 $6 +$1 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $32 −$12 -38%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $7 +$1 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $148 +$3 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 22 $12 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva BUY Tommaso Compagnucci 91¢ $6 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 83¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 83¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 52¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 91¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 12¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 63¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 63¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 86¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 86¢ $5 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 84¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 84¢ $8 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 84¢ $4 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 85¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 41¢ $3 2h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 84¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 67¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch BUY Florent Bax 17¢ $1 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 84¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 84¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 84¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren SELL August Holmgren 100¢ $45 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 100¢ $50 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 53¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 53¢ $3 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 74¢ $3 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 88¢ $13 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 32¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.67 · official $164.67 (match) · 2191 history records