Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe79e…1a87 weather 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%23W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$6
weather 9% +$1
crypto 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 30 +0.2% -9.4% 77% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses23 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage184d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 27? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $649 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on March 23? Mar 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 14? Mar 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? Mar 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C or below on March 2? Mar 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 27? Feb 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 2 Feb 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 2 Feb 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 78°F or higher on February 24 Feb 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 37°F or below on January 28 Feb 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 30°F or higher on January 2 Feb 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Fe Feb 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on January 26? Jan 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on De Jan 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 43°C or higher on Dece Jan 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on January Jan 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 40°C on December 28? Jan 15 $14 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 15 $18 $0 +0%
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked in 2025? Jan 15 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 35°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 32d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $735 71d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $735 74d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $679 76d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $679 77d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $560 79d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $560 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $690 81d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 82d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $518 86d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $519 87d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 91d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 92d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $74 97d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $565 102d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $566 103d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $588 103d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $589 104d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $39 107d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or below on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $64 114d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -9°C or below on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $51 118d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 122d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 123d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 78°F or higher on February 24 BUY No 100¢ $14 124d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $13 124d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 2 BUY No 100¢ $13 125d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Fe BUY No 100¢ $27 141d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 144d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 30°F or higher on January 2 BUY No 100¢ $13 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.55 · official $100.55 (match) · 82 history records