Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe79c…930e crypto 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$309 (-2%) realized −$230 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%158W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days−$367
14 days−$467
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$253
other 30% −$377
sports 5% +$138
politics 2% +$19
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 43% -17.3%
≤30d 208 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 47% -11.9%
≤90d 208 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 47% -11.9%
all 208 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -11.9%
10% -20.4% 22% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 11% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$54 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2,121
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses158 / 50
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions16
Markets (closed)208 / 224
History coverage29d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 64¢ $400 $335 −$65 (-16%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $300 $318 +$18 (+6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 69¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 80¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$264 -53%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $302 +$97 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $193 −$190 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$263 +172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $401 +$23 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$77 -75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $223 −$185 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,004 +$176 +18%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$73 -72%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$104 +203%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $126 −$125 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 04 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 24m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 25m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 26m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 34m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 46m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $168 38h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $238 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $163 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $193 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $153 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 3d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $38 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $223 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,120.81 · official $2,118.72 (match) · 545 history records