Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E7 0xe790…9568 sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$312 (+13%) realized +$312 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%36W / 29L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$295
other 4% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
all 65 +12.9% +2.1% 55% 54% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 54% +2.8%
10% -7.6% 43% -7.0%
15% -16.6% 29% -16.0%
20% -24.7% 20% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage467d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hawks vs. Knicks May 06 $26 +$11 +44%
Will SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Mar 10 $35 +$15 +43%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Feb 13 $25 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Feb 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Broncos vs. Commanders Dec 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Tulane vs. UTSA Roadrunners Nov 30 $9 +$18 +203%
Will Espanyol vs. Valencia end in a draw? Sep 24 $15 +$35 +233%
Will FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen end in a draw? Aug 20 $1 $0 -7%
Mariners vs. Phillies Aug 20 $32 +$18 +59%
Phillies vs. White Sox Aug 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Phillies vs. Astros Jun 26 $26 +$37 +144%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Apr 16 $55 +$20 +37%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Apr 15 $54 +$14 +27%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 15 $22 +$78 +354%
Will Southampton win on 2025-04-12? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Nets vs. Timberwolves Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Everton end in a draw? Apr 13 $30 +$12 +39%
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Apr 13 $40 +$22 +56%
Hawks vs. 76ers Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Sharks vs. Oilers Apr 12 $40 +$11 +27%
Ducks vs. Kings Apr 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Apr 11 $42 +$22 +52%
Sharks vs. Wild Apr 10 $53 +$20 +37%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 10 $84 +$16 +19%
Flames vs. Sharks Apr 09 $33 +$18 +54%
Kings vs. Pistons Apr 09 $22 +$54 +245%
Will Leicester vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Apr 09 $79 +$21 +26%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Jazz vs. Hawks Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $38 +$13 +33%
Kings vs. Cavaliers Apr 07 $13 +$49 +376%
Bulls vs. Hornets Apr 07 $58 +$15 +27%
Blackhawks vs. Capitals Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Apr 06 $89 +$11 +12%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Apr 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Apr 04 $16 +$1 +9%
Capitals vs. Bruins Apr 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Apr 01 $85 +$15 +18%
Michigan vs. Auburn Mar 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Mar 25 $88 +$12 +14%
Ducks vs. Stars Mar 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Hawks vs. Nets Mar 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Leicester vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Mar 18 $58 +$19 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $35 1h
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $26 52d
Will SS Lazio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $35 102d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies SELL Nuggets 67¢ $25 126d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies BUY Nuggets 68¢ $25 127d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $45 163d
Celtics vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 27¢ $14 175d
Broncos vs. Commanders BUY Commanders 27¢ $14 201d
Tulane vs. UTSA Roadrunners BUY UTSA Roadrunners 33¢ $9 232d
Will Espanyol vs. Valencia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 269d
Will FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 304d
Will FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 304d
Mariners vs. Phillies BUY Phillies 63¢ $32 305d
Phillies vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 39¢ $20 325d
Phillies vs. Astros BUY Astros 41¢ $26 359d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Thunder 63¢ $45 401d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Magic 16¢ $10 416d
Grizzlies vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 73¢ $55 430d
Panthers vs. Lightning BUY Panthers 37¢ $37 431d
Wizards vs. Heat BUY Wizards 22¢ $22 432d
Nuggets vs. Rockets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $54 433d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Everton end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $30 433d
Will Southampton win on 2025-04-12? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 433d
Rangers vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $40 434d
Nets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nets $8 434d
Sharks vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 79¢ $40 434d
Hawks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 18¢ $13 435d
Red Wings vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 66¢ $42 435d
Ducks vs. Kings BUY Ducks 26¢ $13 435d
Sharks vs. Wild BUY Wild 73¢ $53 436d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.42 · official $34.42 (match) · 131 history records