Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E7 0xe790…698c sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,953 (+9%) realized +$6,623 · open −$670
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%33W / 24L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,161per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1,318est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,960
7 days+$1,408
14 days+$4,894
30 days+$4,894
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,232
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.8% -6.1% 54% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 57 +11.3% +0.7% 58% 53% -2.5%
≤90d 57 +11.3% +0.7% 58% 53% -2.5%
all 57 +11.3% +0.7% 58% 53% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 53% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -8.9% 49% -11.9%
15% -17.7% 44% -20.4%
20% -25.8% 40% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,401) neutral
Persistence
early +19% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$666 vs −$712 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,330
Realized+$6,623
Unrealized−$670
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses33 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,318
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,161
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 59¢ 50¢ $4,000 $3,330 −$670 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $3,013 +$131 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 17 $4,840 −$1,688 -35%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 17 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,522 −$1,522 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego Jun 17 $1,558 −$1,534 -98%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $1,118 +$1,335 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2,008 +$2,154 +107%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $911 +$624 +68%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $3,393 +$2,423 +71%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,425 −$29 -2%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1,926 +$1,494 +78%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $337 +$294 +87%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1,290 +$1,354 +105%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1,930 +$318 +16%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 12 $559 −$559 -100%
ITF Wuning: Xinxin Yao vs Mai Hontama Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 12 $983 −$983 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 12 $977 −$976 -100%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $1,401 +$394 +28%
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Tiafoe Jun 11 $753 +$543 +72%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $774 −$22 -3%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $436 +$338 +78%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $223 +$215 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,990 −$1,772 -89%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $1,012 +$980 +97%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $1,016 −$588 -58%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $1,523 +$642 +42%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $458 +$65 +14%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $1,010 +$452 +45%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $983 −$2 -0%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1,016 −$33 -3%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 10 $559 −$559 -100%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $509 −$509 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1,012 +$622 +62%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $812 +$192 +24%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $987 +$865 +88%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 09 $815 −$812 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 09 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $1,003 +$545 +54%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $1,609 −$57 -4%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $2,025 +$556 +27%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $971 +$693 +71%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $1,840 −$1,799 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $1,056 +$91 +9%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $980 +$1,077 +110%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $918 −$501 -55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $650 +$670 +103%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,012 +$613 +61%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $815 +$1,218 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 59¢ $4,049 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 47¢ $2,053 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 43¢ $1,933 1h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Sonego 50¢ $1,522 1h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sonego BUY Sonego 40¢ $35 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 100¢ $2,453 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 45¢ $1,118 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 34¢ $1,091 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 33¢ $1,035 3h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 29¢ $45 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 99¢ $4,163 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $2,008 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,522 10h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 99¢ $1,536 19h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 58¢ $911 20h
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina BUY Norrie 51¢ $75 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 49¢ $1,320 22h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 99¢ $5,817 23h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $0 24h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 57¢ $3,393 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $1,396 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $1,425 26h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 99¢ $3,419 26h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 55¢ $1,926 26h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 75¢ $632 26h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 39¢ $337 27h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $2,644 27h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 48¢ $1,290 29h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 55¢ $2,248 30h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 46¢ $1,930 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,329.79 · official $3,329.79 (match) · 135 history records