Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe790…63d2 politics 13 markets active 4d ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,710 (-25%) realized −$9,540 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,967per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$13,576
30 days−$8,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$9,930
other 11% −$414
crypto 4% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -4.0% -13.2% 67% 67% -36.4%
≤90d 8 -11.2% -19.7% 62% 25% -35.8%
all 8 -11.2% -19.7% 62% 25% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 25% -35.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 25% -41.9%
15% -34.4% 12% -47.5%
20% -40.8% 0% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,028 vs −$5,057 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$3,730
Realized−$9,540
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2,967
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,500 $1,642 +$142 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,000 $1,016 +$16 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $600 $465 −$135 (-22%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $600 $450 −$150 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $157 −$43 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $16,191 −$13,576 -84%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t May 18 $1,788 +$506 +28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 18 $10,572 +$4,593 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $1,573 +$8 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 20 $1,864 −$1,493 -80%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 15 $1,922 −$102 -5%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 15 $542 +$31 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $618 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $2,615 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $27 29d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 37¢ $5,175 29d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 36¢ $10,258 29d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $731 50d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $731 50d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $743 50d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $743 51d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 57d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president SELL Yes 8¢ $69 57d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president BUY Yes 12¢ $106 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 66¢ $106 60d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 78¢ $2,311 60d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 77¢ $1,396 60d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 61d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president SELL Yes 12¢ $105 61d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 67¢ $3,406 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 61¢ $982 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 60¢ $500 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 60¢ $500 62d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president BUY Yes 11¢ $100 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 69¢ $500 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 68¢ $500 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 68¢ $100 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,729.76 · official $3,733.76 (match) · 71 history records