Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe790…3e46 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$775 (-1%) realized −$775 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate84%88W / 17L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$21
politics 6% −$798
economics 2% $0
other 1% +$54
crypto 1% −$6
tech 1% $0
world 0% +$1
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 105 +7.7% -2.5% 84% 22% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 22% -10.8%
10% -11.8% 15% -19.3%
15% -20.4% 11% -27.1%
20% -28.2% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$56 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses88 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage625d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $440 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May? Jun 26 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 27 $93 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of March? Apr 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 10 $93 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 20 $93 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Dec 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1600 in November? Dec 06 $41 $0 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Nov 16 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Guinea vs. Botswana end in a draw? Oct 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-16? Oct 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-15? Oct 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-18? Oct 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Guinea win on 2025-10-14? Oct 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Aces vs. Mercury Oct 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? Oct 27 $3 +$7 +212%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18? Oct 27 $7 +$4 +59%
Will SC Recife vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Oct 27 $3 +$8 +222%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-16? Oct 27 $11 +$4 +35%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-15? Oct 27 $11 +$4 +39%
Will SC Internacional win on 2025-10-18? Oct 27 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15? Oct 27 $8 +$9 +113%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16? Oct 27 $7 +$13 +186%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-15? Oct 27 $7 +$15 +212%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15? Oct 27 $11 +$11 +100%
Will Seychelles vs. Gambia end in a draw? Oct 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will Nigeria vs. Benin end in a draw? Oct 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Somalia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Oct 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Algeria vs. Uganda end in a draw? Oct 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Seychelles win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Benin win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Botswana win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Uganda win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Gambia win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Rwanda win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will South Africa vs. Rwanda end in a draw? Oct 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Somalia win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $995 −$3 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 14 $2,500 −$3 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 14 $7,500 −$8 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 14 $11,962 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 02 $1,256 $0 +0%
Will MAS-IPSP win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputi Sep 02 $112 +$3 +2%
Will DIY win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Aug 08 $117 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jul 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will Rui Rocha be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 e Jun 13 $137 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $440 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $93 68d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $92 105d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY No 100¢ $93 136d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $93 157d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $93 202d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov BUY No 100¢ $30 222d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 222d
Will BNB reach $1600 in November? BUY No 99¢ $41 222d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $92 242d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 254d
Will SC Internacional win on 2025-10-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 254d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 254d
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-10-16? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 254d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 254d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-10-16? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 254d
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-10-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 254d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 254d
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-10-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 254d
Will CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 254d
Will SC Recife vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 254d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-10-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 254d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 254d
Aces vs. Mercury BUY Mercury 51¢ $5 254d
Will Guinea vs. Botswana end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $5 256d
Will Botswana win on 2025-10-14? BUY No 87¢ $10 256d
Will Guinea win on 2025-10-14? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 256d
Will Nigeria vs. Benin end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $5 256d
Will Benin win on 2025-10-14? BUY No 91¢ $10 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.55 · official $92.55 (match) · 372 history records