Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe78f…9e37 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-56%) realized −$106 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 40% -85.9%
≤30d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 40% -85.9%
≤90d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 40% -85.9%
all 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 40% -85.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.0% 40% -85.9%
10% -53.9% 20% -87.2%
15% -58.3% 20% -88.5%
20% -62.4% 20% -89.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$37 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 +$4 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $108 −$107 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $66 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.62 · official $63.62 (match) · 14 history records