Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E7
0xe78e…eb64
world · 192 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$187 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$184 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses60 / 108
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions23
Markets (closed)168 / 192
History coverage535d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 23 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$7
14 days−$29
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) T1 35¢ 100¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+182%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+28%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 59¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 72¢ 81¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 68¢ 58¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 64¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? No 40¢ 51¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 26¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $14 −$4 -31%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $25 −$5 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -44%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +27%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $22 +$6 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 10 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $7 +$2 +25%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $6 +$1 +24%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $31 −$1 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$10 +982%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -15%
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$114
world 16% −$28
politics 4% −$7
other 4% −$15
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 55¢ $3 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 28¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 63¢ $3 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 39¢ $3 2h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 39¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 40¢ $2 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 40¢ $2 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 56¢ $3 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $2 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 7h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $2 8h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $3 8h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 25¢ $1 9h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 41¢ $2 10h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $2 10h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 60¢ $3 10h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 78¢ $2 12h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 62¢ $3 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $5 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $3 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 39¢ $0 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 39¢ $6 15h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +5.6% -4.5% 43% 30% -11.1%
≤30d 83 -8.8% -17.5% 41% 31% -12.1%
≤90d 139 -24.0% -31.3% 35% 27% -23.8%
all 168 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 24% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 24% -12.5%
10% -32.2% 18% -20.9%
15% -38.7% 11% -28.5%
20% -44.8% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.56 · official $90.22 (match) · 881 history records