Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe78b…206e other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$346 (+4%) realized +$190 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$115
14 days+$79
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$605
other 30% −$457
sports 15% +$428
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.9% +4.8% 71% 57% +5.3%
≤30d 25 -10.0% -18.5% 52% 40% -9.3%
≤90d 39 -19.7% -27.3% 49% 38% -11.2%
all 46 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 39% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 39% -5.6%
10% -33.7% 35% -14.7%
15% -40.1% 33% -22.9%
20% -46.0% 20% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$64 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1,169
Realized+$190
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions11
Markets (closed)46 / 57
History coverage118d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+2%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 48¢ 81¢ $100 $170 +$70 (+70%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 41¢ $82 $124 +$42 (+51%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $103 $119 +$16 (+16%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $99 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 81¢ 95¢ $81 $95 +$14 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $96 $82 −$14 (-15%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $87 $38 −$50 (-57%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$49 -48%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$92 +180%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? May 17 $100 +$47 +47%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? May 17 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $103 +$98 +96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? May 17 $200 +$79 +40%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 19 $500 +$153 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 09 $361 +$140 +39%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Mar 04 $2,098 +$132 +6%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 02 $977 +$154 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 48¢ $102 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 24h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $251 25h
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $102 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $54 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $102 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $102 10d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $51 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $102 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 13d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 49¢ $102 14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 15d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 15d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $59 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,169.23 · official $1,169.25 (match) · 121 history records