Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe78a…7fba crypto 336 markets active 2d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$325 (-1%) realized −$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%189W / 147L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$657
14 days−$1,011
30 days−$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,266
politics 10% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 24% -15.1%
≤30d 143 -6.2% -15.1% 49% 31% -16.0%
≤90d 336 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 41% -14.0%
all 336 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 41% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 41% -14.0%
10% -22.4% 23% -22.2%
15% -29.9% 13% -29.7%
20% -36.8% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses189 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage65d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$26 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$28 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $129 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$34 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$26 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$53 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$89 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1,035 −$28 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $409 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $114 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $124 −$10 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $27 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $42 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $24 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $12 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $77 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $80 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $77 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 878 history records